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Growing apprehensions exist about the chance of warfare between Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as confrontational discourse has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has sparked a intense rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in last year that his country's sea access was an vital issue, comments that Eritrea ignored.

Ties between the both governments have frequently been strained. Following a long-standing struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, rendering it without sea access.

In 1998, a territorial conflict erupted in which numerous people were killed.

Recent Comments from Ethiopia's Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief the army commander have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrea's southern port of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and suggested the intention to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "error" of losing access to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "corrected soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrean Answer to the Claims

Despite ongoing challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been limited to brief comments on X from Information Minister the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for maritime entry labeling it "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "irredentism" – a approach of retaking former lands.

The information ministry warned on mid-September that moves to justify "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Movements on the Ground

So far, there are little evidence of significant troop deployments in the boundary zones between the both nations.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, government media has broadcast training completions of numerous trainees at various military training camps.

The director of staff section of the military, General Hachalu, stated recently in an interview that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Historical Roots of the Tension

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, Eritrea was administered by colonial powers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the British military before evolving into a integrated region of Ethiopia.

Yet in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this arrangement and the region became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year armed struggle occurred, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Independence was then approved by voters in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, causing conflict in 1998.

Although this finished in a truce in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the two nations stayed at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader the president. The both leaders agreed to a declaration that the hostilities was finished – a decision that earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then cooperators in the country's recent civil war in Tigray.

But ties have subsequently deteriorated again.