Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
