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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It often acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and recent underperformers ascending in unison. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still